Modelling shows physical distancing still needed to prevent further spread
TORONTO — The Ontario government today released updated COVID-19 modelling, which shows that the enhanced public health measures, including staying home and physically distancing from each other, are working to contain the spread of the virus and flatten the curve. However, the Chief Medical Officer of Health says emergency measures must remain in place to continue reducing the number of cases and deaths.
“The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus. That’s due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practising physical distancing, and to the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers,” said Premier Doug Ford. “But COVID-19 continues to be a clear and present danger, especially to our seniors and most vulnerable citizens. That is why we must continue to follow the advice of our Chief Medical Officer of Health and stay the course in order to keep people safe and healthy.”
Key highlights from the modelling update include:
The wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked.
Outbreaks in long-term care and congregate settings continue to be a major concern. Concerted actions are underway to protect vulnerable people in these settings.
Ontario is now trending toward a best case scenario rather than a worst case scenario and has significantly improved its standing as compared to March modelling.
The province has avoided a significant surge in cases. Total cumulative cases are forecast to be substantially lower than worst case or even moderate case scenarios projected by previous models.
While several hundred new cases are identified daily in Ontario, hospitals across the province have not been overwhelmed by the COVID-19 outbreak as a result of capacity planning and the public health measures currently in place. The rate of growth day-over-day is declining.
To further reduce the number of cases and deaths, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including staying home and practicing physical distancing if they must go out for essential reasons only.
“The information released today shows early but unmistakable signs that our efforts are working,” said Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health. “These numbers are not an accident. They are the re sult of months of planning and collective action to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. However, in order for these projections to become reality, each of us must continue to stay home as much possible and practise physical distancing.”
To enhance protections for residents and staff in long-term care homes, last week Ontario launched the COVID-19 Action Plan: Long-Term Care Homes. This action plan will ensure the implementation of critical new measures to prevent further outbreaks and deaths from COVID-19 in long-term care homes. These measures include enhancing and expanding testing for symptomatic and asymptomatic contacts of confirmed cases; providing public health and infection control expertise; and redeploying staff from hospitals and home and community care to support the long-term care home workforce.
“The new province-wide modelling data are encouraging, but we know that long-term care homes and other congregate settings will track on a different path,” said Dr. Merrilee Fullerton, Minister of Long-Term Care. “We will continue to take aggressive action to support our most vulnerable residents and their caregivers.”
Justin Lecuyer
The Health Minister did nothing to protect the vunerable despite common knowledge that seniors are frail, either not smart at all or incompetent or both. Bill C-45 – Criminal Negligence and Medical Malpractice: Under the Criminal Code, every one is criminally negligent who, in doing anything, or, in omitting to do anything that is his (statutory) duty to do, shows wanton or reckless disregard for the lives or safety of other persons. When the Minister does not even respond promptly, they are either over employed or criminal.
mortailty rate still at 0.5 % and thats people that died of carona played a cause
Some were infected and had immunity to it and didn’t know it, politicians backtracking again. Feeling the heat.
were do you see that ..maybe look at the graph again ,, we still rising ,, that isnt no expert ,, where is it flattening ..get more tests done ,,
Likely? We are not sure….but likely. SMH
How about do some tests
Test every Canadian.
Then we can see the real numbers.
When we get more testing done we always have a rise in confirmed cases. How can any professionals anywhere know if we have reached our peak when our numbers are jumping higher every day??? From what I have heard many analysts on the news channels saying, we can only know that we were ever at our peak, when for a period of time, our numbers go down every single day. Our numbers are going up every single day.
Not near enough testing being done still
Until those lines decrease in length, we have not reached the peak.
Because they are testing more…duh
They are guessing
You’re a genius sure glad you’re here to tell us what modelling means !
Finally good news 👐
No one knows anything about covid. Not even the health experts.
Likely ? I really feel like the the experts are just faking it at this point we have no immunity keep wearing your mask and washing your hands
Laura Davieaux They are absolutely advocating for continued public health measures already in place. Reaching a peak simply means these measures are working.
Jenna Yvonne but if we have no immunity how can we only peak once they are trying to solve a long term problem with short term fast answers and it’s reckless
Laura Davieaux that’s what they are saying. It’s working but we can’t stop now and need to stay vigilant
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