Shoreline Conditions Statement – Lake Superior Flood Watch


The Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority (SSMRCA) is issuing a Lake
Superior Flood Watch. Flood forecasting and warning are part of the Conservation
Authority’s provincially mandated responsibilities. This statement is sent out so that
residents can be informed and aware.

Lake Superior water levels continue to decline but are still well above average and the
risk of high-water impacts remains. Lake Superior outflows continue to be set in
consideration of high levels upstream and downstream.

A very intense, slow-moving Colorado low will enter Ontario on Thursday, impacting the
whole province. The system is expected to bring up to 20 mm of rain and rain/snow
showers on Thursday and early Friday before transitioning to snow for the rest of the
weekend. A strong cold front will sweep through the province on Friday, bringing strong
to damaging southwesterly winds. Sustained winds of 40-50 km/hr can be expected.
Gusts to up 90 km/h, reaching as high as 110 km/h, are possible.

Intense winds are expected to continue through Saturday becoming lighter on Sunday,
as the system makes its way through the province.

Forecast winds across the Great Lakes will result in increased water levels due to storm
surge and wave heights that can potentially exceed local flood thresholds. Shoreline
areas of the western part of Lake Superior are expected to be some of the most impacted.
Current lake conditions will potentially make a substantial impact on the shorelines.
Shoreline flooding, wave uprush, and increased erosion across the forecast area may be

SSMRCA advises all shoreline property owners to prepare for potentially severe coastal
impacts such as significant erosion, lakeshore flooding, coastal damages, beach
submersion, crawl space, and septic system inundation, especially during periods of
strong winds and high waves.

SSMRCA staff continue to monitor Lake Superior wind conditions and lake levels closely.
This statement is in effect until (or updated before) December 26, 2022.